The front froze in anticipation of the beginning of a new stage of the war in Ukraine, when both sides will try to conduct large-scale combined military operations against a well-prepared opponent.
The war in Ukraine has entered such a phase when both sides are preparing for a decisive offensive. The confidence with which future offensives from Russia and Ukraine are discussed is already so great that it is not about the possibility of such operations, but about the time when they will begin and about the direction of the strikes. Even US President Joe Biden has already openly stated that Ukraine is preparing for an offensive.
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The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnyi previously stated that he “can defeat the enemy”, but for this he needs “300 tanks, 600-700 BMPs, 500 howitzers”. The number of ZSU is smaller than that of the Russian army. Russia has an advantage in personnel, but also in military equipment, especially in aviation, artillery, and armored vehicles.
On the other hand, the Armed Forces are much better equipped with means of communication, reconnaissance at the tactical and operational level, target designation, they have more high-precision weapons, modern anti-tank systems, which in many cases allows the Ukrainians to effectively oppose Russian units at the tactical level.
The Ukrainian army uses Western intelligence, including satellites, of which there are much more in the West than in Russia, as well as information from various reconnaissance planes that are constantly on duty in the air near the borders of Ukraine.
Finally, the ZSU is better organized than the Russian army – the troop management system, which uses the Internet, allows the command at various levels to quickly make decisions and give orders, while the vertical hierarchical structure in the Russian army slows down the response time to threats.
Since the first months of the war, the Ukrainian army has been using a system of commanding troops on the battlefield. Building such a network turned out to be possible after Elon Musk’s company SpaceX transferred hundreds of Starlink satellite Internet terminals to Ukraine.
However, even in the presence of high-quality communication, if it comes to a major offensive with decisive goals and a breakthrough of the front to a great depth, the Armed Forces will need heavy armored vehicles, and a lot of artillery, and air defense and electronic defense equipment, and most importantly, a lot of ammunition. A lot.
Meanwhile, “shell hunger”, judging by the intensity of artillery use, is now being experienced by both sides. They may indeed be in short supply, but perhaps ammunition is being stockpiled for major operations.
In recent weeks, Ukraine was promised the supply of heavy infantry fighting vehicles – 50 Swedish CV90, 40 German Marder, 59 American Bradley. This technique in itself will greatly increase the combat capability of Ukrainian units, but it will be even more effective when Ukraine also receives main battle tanks.
After long discussions, Washington and Berlin agreed to supply Kyiv with them. Earlier, Britain promised to supply tanks.
Along with the BMP, the Americans will supply Kyiv with command and staff vehicles, ammunition carriers, MRAP armored vehicles, and HMMWV off-road vehicles. Other countries have promised self-propelled wheeled vehicles and more.
The cherry on the American cake was 90 heavy eight-wheeled Stryker armored vehicles, which form the basis of the medium mobile brigades of the American army. There are different versions of these vehicles, including BMP, armored personnel carrier with machine gun weapons, self-propelled mortar, reconnaissance, command and staff, sanitary and other vehicles. One of the modifications is armed with a 105 mm tank gun.
On the one hand, Strykers do not have the same protection as tanks or heavy infantry fighting vehicles and are more vulnerable on the battlefield. But on the other hand, it is a wheeled vehicle, which, unlike tracked vehicles, can make long-range marches without resorting to the help of vehicles with platforms.
Together with the AMX-10 RC armored vehicles promised by France, they can become the basis of rapid reaction units, which can be used to strengthen offensive groups in a short time, or transfer troops to a defensive area.
In addition, Ukraine will receive a lot of self-propelled artillery: Denmark will transfer 19 Caesar self-propelled guns, Sweden – 12 Archer, the Czech Republic – 26-30 Dana-M2, Britain – 18 M109A6. Self-propelled artillery installations are heavy mobile artillery that can accompany troops on the offensive.
However, this whole set of funds requires very serious preparation. Even taking into account the fact that in this case we are not talking about any super-complex systems, such as air defense systems, the mastery of new weapons must be at such a level that the crew can act automatically in combat conditions – because in battle, everything is often decided not even by seconds, but by fractions of seconds.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the USA, General Mark Milley, believes that it will be very difficult for Ukraine to prepare for a new offensive in the coming months – but Milley is sure that it can be done.
The direction of the blow
In order to attack the Kherson Region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must force the Dnipro. This makes the task very difficult. The forcing in itself is already a very difficult operation, but after that it is necessary to arrange the supply of parts through the mentioned crossings, which, most likely, the enemy will try to destroy with all his might, despite the losses.
However, for Ukraine, this is the shortest way to Crimea. If the Dnipro is an obstacle in this case, then the terrain to the isthmus, on the contrary, helps to advance – it is a steppe plain, on which there are not many settlements.
For the Russian army, Kherson may also be a desirable target – the withdrawal from this city was a serious military and political failure for Russia, and taking the city back would be attractive, not to mention that it would open the way to Mykolaiv and Odessa.
The Zaporizhia region (as well as the Kherson region) is important for Russia, since Vladimir Putin personally declared these Ukrainian regions as new subjects of Russia. Politically, it is quite logical to launch an offensive in this direction, especially since, unlike Kherson, there is no need to force the Dnipro in this direction.
If successful, Russian troops would push back the front line, which would make the land corridor from Crimea safer, in particular – the railway, which is being shot at by Ukrainian high-precision missiles.
The fact that the activity of the Russian military has increased in the Zaporozhye direction was reported back in mid-January, but in recent days the Russian army has become even more active.
For Ukraine, a strike in this place is also logical. This would make it possible to reach the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut off the supply of Russian troops in the Kherson region – after the explosion on the Crimean bridge, the supply through the peninsula became problematic. However, the danger of the Ukrainian offensive in this area has been realized in Moscow for a long time, there are reserves in the depth of the defense that are ready to stop the offensive.
The attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was talked about quite a lot in the autumn – towards Kreminnaya and further to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk – will be connected with the need to storm these settlements. Another possible direction – in the Svatove area – looks more attractive from this point of view. There are fewer towns and villages in the north of Luhansk region.
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